Blogs

Quarterly Market Review: Q1 2024 By: Paul Dickson, Director of Research and Giri Krishnan, Senior Portfolio Manager Could there be “no landing” for the U.S. Economy? In defiance of the expectations of many economists, the U.S. Economy continues to show remarkable resiliency. The surprisingly strong economy of 2023 appears poised to continue into 2024, pushing back forecasts for Federal Reserve rate cuts. This raises expectations that 2024 could avoid a significant slowdown altogether. If the eventual end of this business cycle is extended much further, pundits will claim it as evidence of a...

Quarterly Market Review: Q4 2023 By: Paul Dickson, Director of Research and Giri Krishnan, Senior Portfolio Manager The “Soft-Landing” Has Become the Default Scenario The Federal Reserve signaled that it is likely done with rate hikes. The markets responded favorably, nearly doubling the annual return on the S&P 500. This signaling also moved the U.S. Aggregate Bond market from being in the red to having a decisively positive year. The pivot in policymakers’ outlook was somewhat of a surprise given that the data-informed policy has not improved nearly as much as their stance has changed. While...

Quarterly Market Review: Q3 2023 By: Paul Dickson, Director of Research and Giri Krishnan, Senior Portfolio Manager Does a Resilient 2023 Portend Trouble in 2024? Economic trends continuing through the third quarter prompted the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike rates again. The Fed cautioned that further tightening, or at least a prolonged period of tight monetary policy, may be necessary. Concerns over the impact on economic activity are growing as it is now 18 months since the beginning of the tightening cycle. Expectations are rising that the surprising resilience of the economy this year - in...

Quarterly Market Review: Q2 2023 By: Paul Dickson, Director of Research and Giri Krishnan, Senior Portfolio Manager An Unsinkable Economy? A tight labor market and continued high consumer demand appear to have staved off a recession – possibly until 2024 (if even then). This resilience has meant continued inflationary pressures and points toward more Federal Reserve rate hikes this summer. So far, the U.S. economy has defied many economists’ more dire predictions. Hopes are growing for a “soft landing,” even after the most dramatic tightening of monetary policy since the early 1980s. The risks...

Quarterly Market Review: Q4 2022 By: Paul Dickson, Director of Research and Mark Stevens, Chief Investment Officer The New Map The post crisis economic and investment era is moving to the rear-view mirror as new drivers emerge. One year ago, we published our market review for the fourth quarter of 2021 and presented an outlook for 2022 that we termed “Shifting Gears.” Those shifts included our expectations for a significant tightening in monetary policy via interest rate increases and a decline in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) balance sheet. That balance sheet of almost $9 trillion of U.S...